Ryan's Wisdumb

I read a book a decade or so ago, published in 1997 called:  The Fourth Turning An American Prophecy . The book proposed a theory for predicting the future based on cyclical repetition of the past along with the mechanism behind it.  The centrist-leaning conservative authors, historian and economist Neil Howe and the late William Strauss, argue that history repeats itself in roughly 80 to 100 year cycles (about one long lifetime and called a saeculum) due to the constellation and archetype of generations that are influenced by events in the same way as their cohort generation 80 to 100 years in the past. Background on the Fourth Turning Generational Theory Per the theory, there are 4 generations influencing society at any given time (with smaller numbers very old stragglers still hanging on but not influencing society anymore and young children being born to the next generation).  The archetypes used for these generations are Prophet, Nomad, Hero, Artist.  Each ...

  A recent article in The Morning newsletter from the New York Times rekindled a smoldering ember of thought that resides in a corner of my mind.  It has never burned hot enough to inspire me to serious study on the subject, but this time it has at least motivated me enough to write about it.  The topic is growth; how our society and economy are dependent on it, why I think that is problematic, and how it can change.  My thoughts on this subject are not well formed at this time and, unusually for Wisdumb, I offer no answers, only more questions. The Times article covered the aging population of Japan and showed the chart below projecting other major economies and the world as a whole being on the brink of a rapidly aging populous. The article primarily focused on the social impacts of this aging population, in particular that Japan is running out of workers.  It posits the only solution is to bring in more immigrants.  This is what bothers me and stokes tha...